Monday, 25 November 2013

WORLD POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHICS

A Look at Statistics & Estimates

WORLD POPULATION (continent and country wise)

Continent
Density(populaton/cm square)
Population(in crore)
Max. Populated country
Max. Populated city
Asia
96.4
429.87
China(136.1)
Tokyo(3.56 cr)
Africa
36.7
111.06
Nigeria(17.36)
Cairo(1.94 cr)
Europe
72.9
74.24
Russia(14.35)
Moscow(1.48 cr)
North America
22.9
56.52
USA(31.7)
Mexico City (2.11 cr)
South America
22.8
40.67
Brazil(20.10)
Sao Paulo(1.96 lac)
Ocenia(remaning)
4.5
3.83
Australia(2.32)
Sydney(45.7 lac)

S.NO
Name
Population(in cr)
% of World
1
China
136.19
19.1
2
India
123.67
17.4
3
USA
31.71
4.45
4
Indonesia
23.76
3.34
5
Brazil
20.10
2.82
6
Pakistan
18.48
2.59
7
Nigeria
17.36
2.4
8
Bangladesh
14.97
2.28
9
Russia
14.35
2.01
10
Japan
12.73
1.79

IF THE WORLD HAD 100 PEOPLE
Then there would be : 
(1) Male :female  ::  50:50
         (2) 60 Asians,15 African , 13 American, 11 European
         (3) 26 Children , 74 Adults ,(8 above 65)
         (4) 83 Literate (7 with college degree)
         (5) 22 PC owners & sharers
         (6) 77 Home owners
         (7) 33 Christians,22 Muslims, 14 Hindu, 7 Buddhists,12 Others , 12 Ethics.

Population projection 1950-2100(in millions)

(1 ) India will equal China’s population in 2020.
(2) India keeps growing till 2050.
(3) China decreases its population till 2015.
(4) EU will stabilise till 2050.

By 2050 the  World would stabilise  till 2050 at 10 billion in worst scenario.

URBANISATION

Although world’s 50% population  lives  in urban areas, it is uneven. Asia and Africa will witness urbanisation till 2020 & 2030 AD only.

INDIAN POPULATION FACTS

India is the 7th largest nation by landmass, occupying 2.4% of the worlds land and 2nd largest by population supporting 17.5% of worlds population.
68.8% population of India is rural(31.1% is urban)
More than 31% of population is below 25 years of age & more than 50% of population is below 35 years of age , also known as the demographic divident. In 2020 average Indian age will be 32(China-37 , Japan-48)

INDIA’S HISTORICAL POPULATION
1951
36.1(in cr)
1961
43.9
1971
54.8
1981
68.3
1991
84.6
2001
102.8
2011
121.0
2050
165.0

TOP 5 LANGUAGES SPOKEN
HINDI
42(in cr)
BENGALI
8.3
TELUGU
7.4
MARATHI
7.2
TAMIL
6


TOP 5 STATES POPULATION WISE
UTTAR PRADESH
19.2(in cr)
MAHARASHTRA
11.2
BIHAR
10.3
WEST BENGAL
9.1
ANDHRA PRADESH
8.4

RURAL & URBAN WORLD

Literacy rate – 73%(Male-80.9% , Female – 64.6% & as compared to 64.8% of 2001)
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (DT)
Rate of growth of world population is decreasing due to global demographic transition (DT)
The transition from high birth and death rate to low birth and death rate , as a country devlops from a pre-industrial to a industrial economy.
Thomas Malthus predicted that , as food production will fall short of population growth and starvation may result , but 20th century “GREEN REVOLUTION” ensured that would not occur.

REPLACEMENT FERTILITY RATE(RFR)
It refers to the no of children females must reproduce over their reproductive life to produce a stationary population.
Nature ensures 105 boy for every 100 girl
Therefore each 100 women must give birth to 205 kids to keep population stationary.
RFR = 205/100                                
=2.05
≈ 2.10
Girls can be aborted, this will push up RFR in that nation.Young people before 28 years of age may die due to AIDS, malaria.
The RFR varies from 3.35 to 2.06.
World average as of now 2.33 Children per women at which growth of population will tend to zero.This will be called ZPG(Zero Population Growth)
When socities have poor fertility rates they cannot replace   themselves , old people outgrow the younger ones , leading to severe social  imbalance.
Such  socities  will go extinct in some time. 

2013 FERTILITY RATE
NIGERIA
7.03
DR CONGO
4.95
PAKISTAN
2.96
INDIA
2.55
SAUDI ARABIA
2.21
USA
2.06
BRAZIL
1.81
FINLAND
1.73
CHINA
1.55
GERMANY
1.42


CHINA’S ONE CHILD POLICY
Started in 1980 , the one child policy was a legal measure introduced to slow down China’s  exploiting population . It everted  20 crore births between 1979-2009 , but many exemptions were given :


   1)    Rural families  could have 2 child , if 1st was a girl or disabled.
             2)   Etheic minorities were exempted.
            3)    If both children were the only children , they could have two kids. 
            4)    Hong-Kong & Makau were exempted.
            5)    Foreigners were exempted.
            6)    In November 2013 , President Xi Jimping  relaxed condition (3) for even only one parent.

THE 4-2-1 PROBLEM
As the 1st generation of law enforced only children came of age for becaming parents themselves , one adult child was required to take care of 4 parents & 2 parents.

THE FUTURE
The rich west is shrinking irreversibly

2050 POPULATION ESTIMATES

INDIA
1.6 b
CHINA
1.4 b
USA
439 m
PAKISTAN
309 m
INDONESIA
280 m
NIGERIA
259 m
BANGLADESH
258 m
BRAZIL
245 m
DR CONGO
189 m

POSSIBLE 2050 & 2100
(1)    In developed   nations  , urban population will be constantly increasing.
(2)    Developed nations , rural population will be constantly decreasing.
(3)    Less developed nations , urban population will be constantly increasing.
(4)  Less developed nations , rural population will increase till 2020 & then decline.

So tighten your seat belts for the huge explosion of the population which is going to come till 2050. Surely which would effect our economy and we would need a good political system to manage it.The another key factor would be the extinction of the natural resources.Therefore need to handle them carefully and also look after the upcoming generations , so that they could also enjoy the resources.


Lets take a oath to look after the natural resources for the benefit of the future generation.
    

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